Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
