Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
